There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.”
Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year. However, broad generalizations such as: “It’s a great time to buy,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Virginia. In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.
This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market. Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.
Based on the current data, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of three ways:
Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)
Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) as compared to Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)
Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)
| Table 3 |
| Market Analysis for Zip Code 22066 (4/1/12 – 9/30/12) |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solds + |
|
|
|
|
|
Expireds + |
|
|
|
Contracts |
|
|
|
|
|
Withdrawns |
|
|
Type of |
(4/1/12- |
Active |
|
|
|
|
(4/1/12- |
| List Price Range |
Market |
9/30/12) |
Listings |
Difference |
9/30/12) |
| $700,000-$899,999 |
Sellers’ |
32 |
25 |
7 |
|
or |
21.88% |
10 |
| $900,000-$1,199,999 |
Sellers’ |
38 |
25 |
13 |
|
or |
34.21% |
10 |
| $1,200,000-$1,499,999 |
Sellers’ |
28 |
15 |
13 |
|
or |
46.43% |
20 |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 |
Buyers’ |
17 |
24 |
-7 |
|
or |
-41.18% |
1 |
| $2,000,000-$2,499,999 |
Buyers’ |
8 |
10 |
-2 |
|
or |
-25.00% |
7 |
| $2,500,000-$2,999,999 |
Buyers’ |
7 |
15 |
-8 |
|
or |
-114.29% |
4 |
| $3,000,000+ |
Strong Buyers’ |
4 |
27 |
-23 |
|
or |
-575.00% |
10 |
Summary of Zip Code 22066
• $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract is more than the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the homes that have been withdrawn from the market or listings allowed to expire, the price range would be close to balanced.
• $900,000 – 1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract is 1 ½ times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the properties that were been withdrawn and listings that expired, this price range would be close to balanced.
• $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of properties currently under contract is close to double the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the 16 homes that were withdrawn from the market and the 4 listings that expired, this price range would shift from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market.
• $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes that are currently listed for sale is almost 1 ½ times more than the properties sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the 1 home that was withdrawn from the market, the balance of the market in this price range does not significantly change.
• $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is slightly more than the number of properties sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that expired, the number of homes for sale would be more than two times the number of sold plus under contract homes and this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.
• $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number homes currently listed for sale is more than 2 times the number of properties sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that expired, the number of homes for sale would be 2 ½ times the number of sold plus under contract homes and this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.
• $3,000,000 and up – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is close to 7 times the number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, the number of homes for sale would be more than 9 times the number of sold plus under contract homes and this price range would be an even stronger buyers’ market.
For more information on the Great Falls real estate market, please contact Tania Hosmer at TaniaHosmer@gmail.com or (703) 403-8225.
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